We're seeing quite the cool-down now, and these stats sure are intriguing.
Active inventory is up nearly 10% from August and a notable 63% from September 2021.
But Miriam...does this mean the market is about to crash?
Is the bubble going to burst?
Is the...is the...is the pinata going to finally break?
*There are only so many analogies in the world. I'm reaching here! C'mon!
Not so fast, mis amigos.
Remember how we keep saying correlation is not causation?
Just because the market has shifted does. not. mean. it's going to crash.
Quite the contrary; take another look at that graph and go back to median sales price. While it's down, it's only down by a scant 1%--but STILL over 10% higher than this time last year.
And another thing: look at percentage of list price received. It's holding strong at 98.7%, and down only a half percentage point from last month and less than 2% from the year prior.
Now, without a doubt, rising interest rates have slowed the market. Couple that with an increase in gas prices and the largest inflationary hike in food since the 1970's and yes, consumer activity will slow to a crawl.
And it has...
...but nothing lasts forever and neither will this.
*Hi. I'd like to introduce this elephant in the room. We call her "Scarcity". She's hard to get around.
There is no getting around the scarcity issue, which has a profound impact on our market (e.g., the law of supply and demand).
Look, there simply aren't enough houses to go around and haven't been since 2017.
Inflation will stem consumer spending, but won't stop it completely. At the end of the day, people still need a place to live--rising interest rates or not.
It remains to be seen how the high price of gas and food play out in the market: will prices go down? Will wages go up? Will we experience stagflation?
No one knows for sure, but one thing is for certain:
Stay calm and stay the course.
And remember what I said about diminutive hysterical fowl.
*Don't be like this guy. Seriously.
With nerdy statistical gratitude,
p.s. If you're a buyer, THIS is the break in the market you've been waiting for. I am fortunate to be connected with a host of local lenders, all of whom would love to provide you an updated pre-approval letter. Let's talk further about your buying goals--I ain't about to stop and neither should you.